Federal Sentencing Distribution Report
Federal sentences cluster — not on a single number, but on a range. The prosecutor knows that range cold. The defendant rarely sees it before the day of sentencing. The USSC has been publishing the underlying data for a decade. This report puts your offense, your district, and your fiscal-year window into a single picture.
Where Federal Sentences Actually Cluster For Your Charge
Percentile ranges (p10/p25/p50/p75/p90). Departure rates. Monte Carlo simulation drawn from the real district distribution. National comparison. Per-fiscal-year breakdown. 13,131 USSC FY14-23 buckets across 94 federal districts.
Sentencing distributions are aggregate; your judge sentences differently. Use the data to ask the right questions.
$297
Generated on demand from the USSC sentencing matview within 60 seconds.
Verified public source: USSC Individual Offender Datafiles, fiscal years 2014 through 2024
What You Get
- Percentile ranges (p10 / p25 / p50 / p75 / p90) for your federal charge in your district — what month-counts cluster where
- Departure rates — downward, upward, and probation share for your offense
- Monte Carlo sentence simulation (1,000 samples) drawn from the actual district distribution, not a generic curve
- National comparison — how your district’s distribution compares to the national distribution for the same offense
- Per-fiscal-year breakdown across FY14-FY23 with sample size disclosed
- Progressive widening when district-exact buckets are sparse — disclosed clearly when fallback fires
- Source: USSC Individual Offender Datafiles, fiscal years 2014 through 2023
Sample Distribution Data
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Distribution buckets in corpus | 13,131 rows | federal_sentencing_distributions |
| Federal districts covered | 94 | USSC Individual Offender Datafiles |
| Sample percentile band (drug trafficking, district aggregate) | p25-p75 ≈ 24-72 months | USSC FY14-23 |
| Monte Carlo sample count | 1,000 simulated sentences | histogram(monte_carlo, 20) |
Sample values illustrate the cell shape — your report contains actual percentile bands, departure rates, and the per-year breakdown for the federal charge and district you select.
Why You Can Trust This Data
The USSC publishes the raw sentencing data every fiscal year. Our matview computes percentiles, departure rates, and per-year counts directly off the verified rows — no interpolation, no smoothing. When district-exact buckets are sparse, the resolver widens progressively and discloses each fallback step on the report.
Distribution buckets aggregate USSC Individual Offender Datafiles for fiscal years 2014 through 2024 — 13,131 rows across 94 federal districts. Percentiles are computed off the actual distribution shape per district. Monte Carlo samples are drawn from the real empirical distribution, not a parametric fit. Aggregate frequencies only — never a prediction about a specific case or defendant.
Frequently Asked Questions
Five sections built from USSC fiscal-year datafiles: (1) percentile ranges for your charge in your federal district — p10, p25, p50 (median), p75, and p90 sentence months; (2) departure rates — share of sentences below guidelines, above guidelines, and at probation only; (3) Monte Carlo simulation drawing 1,000 sample sentences from the actual district distribution; (4) national comparison showing how your district’s distribution compares to the national distribution for the same offense; (5) per-fiscal-year breakdown across FY14-FY23 with sample sizes disclosed. Charges that don’t map to a USSC primary sentencing guideline are rejected before checkout — no charge for charges we can’t analyze.
USSC Individual Offender Datafiles for fiscal years 2014 through 2024 — 13,131 district-level buckets across 94 federal districts. Aggregates are computed off the verified raw data: medians, percentile breaks, departure shares, and per-year counts. Monte Carlo samples are drawn from the actual distribution shape, not a generic curve. Nothing is estimated; nothing is fabricated.
No. This is legal INFORMATION — historical sentencing distributions for federal offenses, by district. Sentencing distributions are aggregate; your judge sentences differently. Use the data to ask the right questions.
Instantly on purchase. The report is generated on demand from the USSC sentencing matview within 60 seconds and rendered to your email.
The resolver widens progressively — first to district + offense + criminal history, then district + offense, then national + offense, then offense-only. Each fallback is disclosed in the report so you know exactly which scope produced the numbers. When the charge type doesn’t map to a federal sentencing guideline at all (most state offenses), the availability check rejects before checkout.
The Federal Sentencing Distribution Report tells you the range — what month-counts cluster where for your charge in your district. The X-Ray ($2,497) inherits this district sentencing intelligence AND tells you where YOU fit inside it via full discovery analysis. Different scope, different price step.
Get the Federal Sentencing Distribution Report — $297
Most defendants walk into a sentencing hearing without ever seeing the percentile shape of how their charge has been sentenced in their district. Defendants who prepare walk in with the p10, the median, the p90, the departure shares, and a 1,000-sample Monte Carlo of the empirical distribution. 13,131 USSC buckets — yours in 60 seconds.
This is legal information, not legal advice. The report compiles historical sentencing distributions from verified USSC data. Every case is different. Decisions about how to use the information stay with you.
Questions before you buy? help@imnotanattorney.com — a defendant-side researcher replies, not a bot.